برآورد ارتباط واردات شکر با تولید چغندرقند در ایران طی سال‌های 1399-1380

نوع مقاله : کامل علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران. کرج، ایران.

2 دانشجو کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران. کرج، ایران.

چکیده

شکر به‌عنوان کالای استراتژیک همواره مورد توجه دولت‌ها بوده است. این کالا از دو محصول نیشکر و چغندرقند بهدست می‌آید. لذا بررسی ارتباط تولید چغندرقند و واردات شکر مورد توجه است. از همین رو این مطالعه با هدف برآورد ارتباط واردات شکر با تولید چغندرقند در ایران طی سال‌های 1399-1380 با استفاده از الگو خودتوضیح برداری انجام گرفته است. آمار موردنیاز برای تولید چغندرقند و واردات شکر از پایگاه اطلاع‌رسانی وزارت جهادکشاورزی و انجمن صنفی کارخانه‌های قند و شکر ایران استخراج شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که تغییرات واردات شکر علت تغییرات تولید چغندرقند است. نتایج الگو خودتوضیح برداری نشان داده است که در کوتاه‌مدت افزایش یک درصدی واردات شکر باعث کاهش 0/30 درصدی تولید چغندرقند می‌شود. نتایج الگوی بلندمدت حاکی از آن است که افزایش یک درصدی واردات شکر موجب کاهش 0/19 درصدی تولید چغندرقند خواهد شد. بر اساس نتایج، پیشنهاد می‌شود ظرفیت‌سنجی از واردات شکر بر اساس شکاف عرضه و تقاضا در داخل کشور انجام گیرد و ظرفیت مناسب کشور در تولید چغندرقند و حمایت از صنایع فرآوری و نیز توسعه کشاورزی قراردادی مدنظر سیاست‌گذاران قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating the relationship between sugar import and sugar beet production in Iran, during 2001-21

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Rafiee 1
  • Seyedeh Fatemeh Hashemi Dashtaki 2
1 Assistant Professor of Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 M.Sc. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Sugar as a strategic commodity has always been of interest to governments. This product is obtained from sugarcane and sugar-beet. Therefore, the relationship between sugar beet production and sugar import is considered significant. This study aimed to estimate the relationship between sugar import and sugar beet production in Iran during 2001-21 using a vector autoregressive model. The statistics required for sugar beet production and sugar import were extracted from the information baser of the Ministry of Jihad-e-Agricultural and the Iranian Sugar Factories Association. Results showed that changes in sugar imports are the cause of changes in sugar beet production. Results of vector autoregressive model showed that in short time, one percent increase in sugar import reduced sugar beet production by 0.30%, and in long-term model, one percent increase in sugar import reduced sugar-beet production by 0.19%. Based on the results, it is suggested that the capacity assessment of imports should be done based on the supply and demand gap in the country. The appropriate capacity of the country in sugar beet production and support of processing industries and development of contract agriculture should be considered by policy makers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sugar Import
  • Sugar-beet Production
  • Vector Autoregressive Model
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