برآورد تابع تقاضای واردات شکر ایران (رهیافت ARDL)

نوع مقاله : کامل علمی - پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه اردکان، اردکان، ایران.

چکیده

هدف از مطالعه حاضر برآورد تقاضای واردات شکر ایران با در نظر گرفتن دو کشور برزیل و امارات متحده عربی به­عنوان عمده­ترین صادرکننده­های شکر به ایران است. لازم به ذکر است کشور امارات به­عنوان صادرکننده مجدد عمل می­کند و این کشور تولیدکننده محصول شکر نیست. از این­رو از داده­های سری­زمانی سال­های 1395-1371 و روش همگرایی خودتوضیحی با وقفه­های گسترده (ARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج برآورد بلندمدت نشان داد که یک درصد افزایش در تولید ناخالص داخلی، میزان تقاضای واردات شکر را به میزان 4/73 درصد افزایش می­دهد و یک درصد افزایش در قیمت نسبی و نرخ ارز، میزان تقاضای واردات شکر را به میزان 28 درصد کاهش می­دهد. همچنین اگر میزان صادرات کشور برزیل یک واحد افزایش یابد میزان تقاضای واردات شکر ایران از کشور برزیل نسبت به امارات به میزان 0/8 واحد افزایش می­یابد. ضریب تصحیح خطا (ECM) نیز در تابع تقاضای واردات شکر نشان می­دهد که میزان 0/68 درصد انحراف واردات شکر از مسیر بلندمدتش توسط متغیرهای الگو در دوره­ی بعد تصحیح می­شود. در نهایت باید به متغیر نرخ ارز به­عنوان یکی از مهمترین عوامل اثرگذار در تجارت خارجی به­ویژه شکر مورد توجه سیاست­گذاران قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of Iran’s sugar import demand function (ARDL approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • P. Najafi 1
  • M. Fehresti sani 2
  • Y. Bostan 1
  • َ. Fatahi ardakani 3
1 Graduated M.Sc of Agricultural Economics Department, Agriculture and Natural Resource faculty, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics Department, Agriculture and Natural Resource faculty, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran.
3 Associate professor of Agricultural Economics Department, Agriculture and Natural Resource faculty, Ardakan University, Ardakan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study was to estimate the demand for Iranian sugar imports considering the two countries of Brazil and the United Arab Emirates as the major importers of sugar to Iran. It should be noted that the UAE acts as a re-exporter and is not a sugar producer. Therefore, time series data from 1992-2016 and Auto-Regressive Distributed lag (ARDL) was used. The results of long-term estimates show that 1% increase in GDP increases the demand for sugar imports by 4.73%, and 1% increase in relative prices and exchange rate reduces the demand for sugar imports by 28%. Also, if the Brazilian export rate increases by one unit, the demand for Iranian sugar imports from Brazil would increase by 0.8% unit compared with the UAE. The Error Correction Model (ECM) in the sugar import demand function also shows that the rate of 0.68% deviation of sugar import from its long-term path is corrected by pattern variables in the next period. Finally, policymakers should consider the exchange rate variable as one of the most important factors influencing foreign trade, especially sugar.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Auto-Regressive Distributed lag
  • Import demand
  • Sugar

مراجع

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چغندرقند
دوره 35، شماره 2
اسفند 1398
صفحه 207-216

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